• Concerns over the immediate effects of the lock down have been overpowered by expectations of a powerful post crisis recovery and policy measures ad infinitum.
• The speed of this recovery is the critical assumption from a market perspective .
• Permanently lost businesses and jobs , lasting damage to international supply chains , and caution on the part of consumers all look likely to dampen the recovery , policy measures notwithstanding . We still subscribe to the idea of a U shaped sequence .
• Are we in the equivalent of March 2009? We compare the data flow in 2008 09 to market dynamics (pp. 3 4), and the readings of our aggregate macro filter (p.5). We don’t think the current scenario meets the criteria yet
.• We remain underweight risk assets . Details on our under and overweights on p. 6.