• The fears of late-2018 did not materialize in 2019. The expected slowdown did set in, but US recession fears dissipated and market perceptions of a monetary policy overkill were contradicted by precautionary easing by both the Fed and the ECB.
• Similarly, even if the amount of noise was considerable, uncertainties over trade tensions eventually subsided, and Brexit concerns ended up taking a backseat.
• Positive expectations must now be fulfilled. The first part of the presentation therefore asks both what must go right in 2020 and what must not go wrong.
• A relevant checklist is useful. Data processing is essential. In the second part of the presentation we outline the readings of our DREX models and our current cross-asset allocation.
• Our models point to a positive starting point for risk assets. But a dynamic approach to managing risks in 2020 looks as relevant as ever.